Lyme Disease Lifetime Risk Varies By State

Residents in high-incidence states face a significant lifetime risk of diagnosis, with most cases occurring before age 50.

Updated on Oct. 23, 2026 in Allergies

Gouache-painted editorial illustration of blades of wild tall grass and a small nymph tick, illustrating Lyme disease risk. — A new modeling study finds that residents in 15 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. face a significant lifetime risk of Lyme disease. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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A new modeling study estimates that residents in 15 high-incidence states and Washington, DC, face a significant lifetime risk of receiving a Lyme disease diagnosis. The findings highlight that over half of this cumulative risk occurs before age 50.

Why it matters

Understanding geographic and age-based risk helps residents in affected areas recognize the importance of early diagnosis and prevention. This study quantifies the substantial burden of Lyme disease in regions where it is most prevalent.

Researchers analyzed CDC mortality data and insurance claims for 60 million people to calculate lifetime risk across different ages and regions. While the study established a 13.7% average risk for high-incidence states, it remains unclear why risk patterns differ so significantly by state.

The players

CDC

The national public health agency that provides mortality data and tracks infectious disease trends.

The details

The study utilized a claims-based algorithm to track the cumulative probability of a Lyme disease diagnosis throughout a person's life. By processing records for 60 million individuals, researchers identified that in states like Vermont, the lifetime risk reaches 32.5%. The analysis clarifies that exposure is not limited to older adults, as more than 50% of these diagnoses occur before the age of 50.

2016-2023: Period of insurance claims data analyzed in the study.

Health Landscape

This study builds upon the official data provided by the CDC Lyme disease surveillance program to provide a clearer picture of lifetime exposure. It highlights that the disease remains a persistent public health concern in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, necessitating ongoing prevention efforts.

If you live in a high-incidence state like Vermont or Connecticut, be vigilant about tick checks regardless of your age. Discuss potential symptoms and screening protocols with your doctor if you spend significant time outdoors in these regions.

The takeaway

Lyme disease risk varies dramatically by location, with some residents in high-incidence states facing a lifetime risk as high as 32.5%. Monitor for unexplained rashes or flu-like symptoms and consult your physician if you believe you have been exposed to ticks in high-risk areas.